For the comparison between China and India, from India and emerging markets as a research professor at the Harvard Business School Pali Pu · Krishna (PalepuKrishna) had to accept the "First Financial (microblogging) Daily" reporters interview rather is aptly said:. "Now a lot of people are concerned about whether India's economy growing faster than China, but I think there are certain deceptive, because India itself, much lower base than China, so of course there is still a wide gap between India's attractiveness also that if you are coming to India, like China, it may undergo a process of rapid growth over the past 20 years. "
India's economy has entered a take-off stage
Recently, New Delhi, India, the Central Statistics Office released the latest data show that the first quarter of 2015, the Indian economy grew by 7.5%, China 7.0% over the same period; the fourth quarter of 2014, India's economic growth of 7.5% compared to 7.3% in China. This means that, according to official data, India, India's economic growth has been the second consecutive quarter beyond China.
In addition, India in fiscal 2014 (April 1, 2014 to March 31, 2015) GDP growth rate of 7.3 percent, the highest in four years, compared with the previous fiscal year's economic growth of 6.9% achieved substantial growth; phase By contrast, the year 2014, China's GDP growth reached 7.4%, still 0.1 percentage points higher than in India.
According to IMF forecasts, fiscal year 2015, India will surpass China to become a turning point. "India in 2015 and 2016 will remain 7.5 percent economic growth, to become the world's fastest growing economies, China's economy is slowing to a more sustainable growth rate of GDP is expected to grow 6.8% in 2015, 2016 will grow 6.3%. "IMF in the latest release," said the Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook ".
帕利普 the reporter said: "The Prime Minister of India Modi came to power, determined to reform economic bold, so confident about the economic outlook for the Indian people can see, consumers, business people all reflect an optimistic. spirit, this optimism also stimulated people to consumption, investment. "
Last fiscal year, India's economic growth thanks to the strong performance of manufacturing and services. In addition, the financial industry and the real estate industry also showed significant growth. The entire fiscal year, India's output growth in the finance, insurance, real estate and other services amounted to 11.5%, while utilities output growth was 7.9%. Agricultural output growth was 0.2%, manufacturing output growth was 7.1%. After the data release, to bring significant boost to the Indian market, India's benchmark stock index rose 1.2 percent, yields on 10-year government rose slightly to 7.64%.
For a long time, poor infrastructure, skills of workers and other factors, however hard the development of India's manufacturing sector. Aware of the gap between the potential of the Indian presence in the manufacturing sector last September 25, Moody that "we must vigorously develop the manufacturing sector, to ensure the country's younger generation to benefit." Meanwhile, the new government carried out a series of reform - liberalization of FDI restrictions, tax reform, labor and land expropriation revised regulations, to develop manufacturing and development of railways and smart cities.
Moody's "Made in India", "Digital India" and "Clean India" and other slogans also successfully attracted worldwide attention. Now it seems that this series of efforts have yielded results.
Pa Lipu that, although there are still manufacturing in India low productivity, poor infrastructure environment needs to be improved, but the biggest advantage is that India's large domestic market demand, so mainly for the domestic manufacturing industry, unlike the manufacture of these countries Cambodia Vietnam owners to export-oriented, vulnerable external environment. "Manufacturing development potential, strong domestic demand, abundant cheap labor to become the main reason for India to attract foreign investment."
"Vietnam, Indonesia and the Southeast Asian countries, while low manufacturing cost, very attractive, but they lack a lot of labor, India is the only country capable of succeeding in the labor force in China, whether in Vietnam or Indonesia are not enough left to fill China space, which created a golden opportunity for the Indian. "HSBC senior economist Frederic Neumann (FredericNeumann) analysts said.
But University of Maryland's Smith School of Business Gupta (AnilKGupta) said he believed the road, maritime and power systems, the level of development in India and China are far from unbeatable, "infrastructure gap will be offset fundamentally India advantage "on labor costs.
Pa Lipu told reporters that, in the manufacturing sector in India in order to achieve the same level with China, the Indian government must take effective measures to improve workforce productivity, including increased infrastructure investment, strengthen technical training for the labor force, improve public health system
and so on.
Heard the voices of doubt Through the efforts, India has achieved rapid economic growth is an indisputable fact, but economic growth really reached the Indian official level, the parties question has been prevalent.
From January 30 this year began, Indian authorities adjusted the calculation of GDP. The calculation of GDP in the base year from 2005 after the move in 2012, while the production cost pricing to a market valuation, difference between the two is that the market valuation of GDP is the sum of consumer and corporate spending measure of economic activity, and production costs denominated GDP is a measure of producer costs.
In the latest calculation methods, the first two of India's GDP growth in the same fiscal year was substantially revised. 2012 fiscal year, the country's GDP growth from 4.7% to 5.1%; and in fiscal year 2013, India's GDP growth rate is substantially revised from the previous 4.7 percent to 6.9 percent, by nearly 50%, so the market is quite unexpected .
HSBC's chief India economist PranjulBhandari analysis, said:. "About 60 percent of India's GDP comes from agriculture, but is still in production, agriculture, construction, banking and public services, and there is no sign of significant improvement, while the expenditure side, rural consumption, government spending and exports also remained lackluster. "
London-based Kay cast macro (CapitalEconomics) economic analyst Sheeran Shah (ShilanShah) more directly, said: "If India's economic growth in fiscal year 2013 actually reached 6.9%, which means that India does not lift the case of high inflation, a substantial increase in the growth rate of the space is greatly reduced. However, this statistical data concerning the Indian economy in good condition and the other revealing indicator of economic weakness in India is difficult to justify. "
Pearl
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